To hedge is to bet on another possible outcome in addition to the initial bet you have taken. Example : you want to bet on Federer’s victory at the US open @2.00 because you are convinced that he will win. However, you are also a bit afraid that Nadal will have a good tournament. You then want to ensure that your bet is refunded if Nadal wins. You will then hedge your initial bet by betting a little money on Nadal @5.00 (for example) 사설토토. The goal: to be reimbursed for your bet on Federer if it is Nadal who finally wins the tournament. In theory, making a cover sounds like a good thing. We secure our bet and this reduces the part of variance, that is to say the part of chance . We will lose our bet less often and therefore our winning curve will be more linear over the long term. However, is making a cover always a good thing? Do I always have to hedge my bet? The only viable way to win at sports betting over the long term is to play values bets. A value bet is a “quotation error” at the bookmaker. This means that the odds he offers for a bet are higher than they should be in theory. I very often develop in my blog this notion of value betting which is essential to win at sports betting. I had written a simple article some time ago explaining this principle. It is by playing these odds values that you can really win in the long term. The rule to know if you have to cover a bet is therefore as follows: you can cover a bet if the bet you are covering is also value사설토토, i.e. its expected gain over the long term is at least equal to 0. Does that seem a bit complicated? Here is an example to better understand. Example Let’s go back to the previous example. You want to bet on Federer’s victory at the US Open @2 because it seems value to you. Indeed, you estimate that Federer has a 60% chance of winning this tournament. However, the bookmaker estimates that Federer has only a 50% chance with the odds of 2 that he offers*. The bookmaker underestimates Federer’s chances of victory. So we have a value bet (provided your analysis is good). Without making a cover By playing this bet and if you do not hedge, you have an expectation of winnings of +20%**. This means that by playing €100 on this bet, you will win on average (over the long term) €20 net. Calculation of the expected gain of the hedge If now you want to cover on Nadal. Nadal has odds of 5. The bookmaker therefore gives him a 20% chance of winning (1/5 = 0.20 = 20%) In the first case you estimate that Nadal’s odds are valued because Nadal has a 25% chance of winning for you. The bet you make on Nadal to cover the bet on Federer will therefore have an expected gain of 25% (see formula**). In the second case you estimate that the odds are not valued because Nadal has only a 15% chance of winning for you. In this case, the bet you will make on Nadal to cover your bet will have an expected gain of -25% (see formula**).