Hedging in sports betting: what is it?

To hedge is to bet on another possible outcome in addition to the initial bet you have taken. Example : you want to bet on Federer’s victory at the US open @2.00 because you are convinced that he will win. However, you are also a bit afraid that Nadal will have a good tournament. You then want to ensure that your bet is refunded if Nadal wins. You will then hedge your initial bet by betting a little money on Nadal @5.00 (for example) 사설토토. The goal: to be reimbursed for your bet on Federer if it is Nadal who finally wins the tournament. In theory, making a cover sounds like a good thing. We secure our bet and this reduces the part of variance, that is to say the part of chance . We will lose our bet less often and therefore our winning curve will be more linear over the long term. However, is making a cover always a good thing? Do I always have to hedge my bet? The only viable way to win at sports betting over the long term is to play values ​​bets. A value bet is a “quotation error” at the bookmaker. This means that the odds he offers for a bet are higher than they should be in theory. I very often develop in my blog this notion of value betting which is essential to win at sports betting. I had written a simple article some time ago explaining this principle. It is by playing these odds values ​​that you can really win in the long term. The rule to know if you have to cover a bet is therefore as follows: you can cover a bet if the bet you are covering is also value사설토토, i.e. its expected gain over the long term is at least equal to 0. Does that seem a bit complicated? Here is an example to better understand. Example Let’s go back to the previous example. You want to bet on Federer’s victory at the US Open @2 because it seems value to you. Indeed, you estimate that Federer has a 60% chance of winning this tournament. However, the bookmaker estimates that Federer has only a 50% chance with the odds of 2 that he offers*. The bookmaker underestimates Federer’s chances of victory. So we have a value bet (provided your analysis is good). Without making a cover By playing this bet and if you do not hedge, you have an expectation of winnings of +20%**. This means that by playing €100 on this bet, you will win on average (over the long term) €20 net. Calculation of the expected gain of the hedge If now you want to cover on Nadal. Nadal has odds of 5. The bookmaker therefore gives him a 20% chance of winning (1/5 = 0.20 = 20%) In the first case you estimate that Nadal’s odds are valued because Nadal has a 25% chance of winning for you. The bet you make on Nadal to cover the bet on Federer will therefore have an expected gain of 25% (see formula**). In the second case you estimate that the odds are not valued because Nadal has only a 15% chance of winning for you. In this case, the bet you will make on Nadal to cover your bet will have an expected gain of -25% (see formula**).

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