How to make a prediction? Introduction to the concept of value betting

This concept is one of the most important in the world of sports betting because it indicates whether to place a bet or not. f r 1) Establish a prognosis But before talking about this notion of value, let me show you how to proceed to establish a prognosis. Contrary to what many bettors do , it is important not to look at the odds to get an idea of ​​what we are going to bet. Being influenced by the odds is an extremely common mistake among bettors. r 2) The process that I strongly advocate is the following: 1️⃣Check upcoming matches without viewing odds. 2️⃣Identify the interesting matches, those on which you have a “feeling”. 3️⃣Peel these matches, using many tools (news of the teams, form of the teams, last confrontations between them…). 4️⃣Establish a forecast for the match, once all these parameters have been taken into account (feeling / intuition / stats / news, etc.). ⚠️Example: Over 2.5 goals in this match, home team will win 사설토토, away team will not score. Once you have decided on your bet, it is now necessary to determine whether you will play it or not. This action will depend on the odds assigned by the bookmaker. I will explain how to calculate if your bet is “worth playing”. r 3) The notion of value Once you have made your prediction, estimate the percentage chance of it winning. Until then, you have not yet looked at the odds of your prediction. Only now you can go see the odds set by your bookmaker for your prediction. It is now a matter of comparing your estimate with that of the bookmaker , by converting the odds of the bookmaker into a percentage. f ⭐Make the following calculation: (1 / odds) x 100: you thus obtain the estimate of the percentage of chances that the prediction will be a winner made by the bookmaker (in reality, you must also take into account the bookmaker’s margin). f ⭐Now just compare the two estimates : yours and the bookmaker’s. This is where the notion of value-bet (or value) comes in. f ⭐Several scenarios: – If your estimate is higher than that of the bookmaker, the forecast (with the assigned odds) represents a value-bet in your eyes: you must clearly play this bet. – If it is equal to that of the bookmaker, the forecast (with the assigned odds) is not a value-bet but remains entirely playable. – If it is lower than that of the bookmaker, the prognosis (with the odds assigned) is not at all a value-bet for you: I strongly advise you not to play this bet, because it will not be “paid at its fair value”. value” by the bookmaker. f All this reasoning to say that it is very important not to see the odds to get an idea of ​​what we are going to play, but to see the odds to know if we are going to play our bet or not. This is an essential nuance and to be applied to make money in the medium/long term in sports betting. f 4) The proverb There is a proverb that perfectly describes the question one must ask oneself when placing a bet: “Is the game worth the candle 사설토토? » . You will know after following all the steps described above. f

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *