The key element in sports betting: management. Managing your budget is one of the most important things in sports betting, even the most important thing for the professional bettor, the semi-professional bettor, the beginner or the bettor who only bets occasionally for fun. . By defining a few simple rules about the management of his money and the bets he places, the bettor gives himself a much better chance of succeeding 토토사이트. Define rules. Bookmakers are winners in the long run, that’s indisputable. 95% of bettors lose in the long run. One of the main causes is poor or non-existent budget management . If you don’t set specific rules, you tend to make two types of terrible mistakes 토토사이트: Increase bets on winning streaks. We tell ourselves that everything is fine and will continue to be fine . Raise bets on losing streaks. Because we want to “remake ourselves”, an expression to be banned. That is to say that whatever happens to the bettor, he will tend to increase the bets. However, the chances of winning will not increase, nor even the confidence he will have in his bets. The budget is not unlimited you understand that this leads to disaster. You should know that sports betting works by series. There are winning streaks (where the bettor turns at 80% success), neutral streaks (40-60% success) and losing streaks (20%). Series of 2 or 3 winning predictions out of 8 or 9 exist because sports betting is not an exact science and that on hundreds or thousands of bets per year, the probability that bad series occur is high, just like that of good ones. series of course. “A constant fight against our discipline” Budget management therefore avoids making these mistakes. It’s just a matter of psychology. The bettor wins, he gains confidence, he increases his stakes. The bettor loses, he wants to recover and therefore increases his bets. In conclusion , sports betting is a constant fight against our discipline.
Mistakes not to make there are dozens, probably even hundreds. Here is a list with, in my opinion , the mistakes to avoid in sports betting among those I have made, seen made and heard. Mistakes to Avoid in Budget-Related Sports Betting 1) First of all, mismanaging your budget 토토사이트. Managing your budget well is essential to be a winner in the long term. 2) Placing too many bets. Avoid placing too many bets on the same match and/or over the same period. The reason: not to risk too large a part of the Bankroll since in the worst case all bets could be losers. 3) Do not bet at a single betting agency. Bookmakers all have different odds and all have the best odds for different sports, leagues and bet types. Thus, having several accounts at several bookmakers allows you to always take the best odds . Significant detail over the long term (consult our free comparator here) . 4) Next, mix booze and sports betting . It may seem surprising and yet like driving a car or going to work, to bet you have to be lucid and rigorous. Since alcohol can influence our way of thinking, we recommend not combining these two “pleasures”. 5) Betting blindly on your favorite team . You can bet on the match of your favorite team provided that the analysis has been made by being lucid and objective 토토사이트. In this case, we even recommend betting on the matches of your favorite team because no one knows it better than a fan. Mistakes to avoid in sports betting related to emotion 6) Trying to remake yourself . Sports betting is only a question of will and psychology, when a bettor loses he wants to be redone at all costs. But here lies the venom of sports betting. We come to forget the rules, the maximum bets, the analyzes even sometimes by taking bets almost at random (look at our advice page for analyzing a match here ) . 7) Next, feel compelled to bet. No bettor is obliged to bet. If no bet is interesting then you just have to say “too bad” and wait for the next day.
8) Not having capital monitoring. It may seem like a waste of time but god knows how much it is not! Having a follow-up of the bets and the evolution of the capital does not just allow you to know how much money you have available. This allows above all to have black on white all our bets made, the stakes on each of these bets and the result 토토사이트. This is clearly gold! Thus, the bettor can analyze his statistics. In this way, he can understand what works best for him and what does not work for him. 9) Be careful not to blindly trust a single source (bettor, facebook, forum). It is essential to always check on at least two different sources the veracity of information. This in order not to place a bet with main information which could prove to be erroneous.
But the best known match is a second qualifying round of the Champions League, the return match against the Belfast Crusaders on July 21, 2015 (I also told you about it live). Skenderbeu won the home game 4-1 and lost 3-2 in the second leg. It follows what the report calls “outrageous suspicious live betting” totaling “at least several hundred thousand dollars 토토사이트.” Skenderbeu has indeed done almost all the work at home and was therefore able to do what the fakers wanted in the second leg. So they as expected conceded two goals in the last 10 minutes, there was even a ridiculous post (you can clearly see from the video that even the keeper was hoping for the ball to go in) the Crusaders were also denied two goals. Contrary to usual this time it was even an adversary football player who did not hesitate to tweet and let the whole world know that this match smelled like match fixing. Here is the tweet from Crusaders goaltender Sean O’Neill.How are they spotted? The BFDS uses algorithms and mathematical models to assess the movements of odds during matches and identify potentially fraudulent matches. Skenderbeu have recorded more than twice as many match-fixings as any other club since the system was established in 2009 . UEFA engaged a UK company to carry out an anonymous analysis of betting data from 10 of these games; the results almost entirely resemble those of the BFDS and are central to the conclusion of the report. Another key point will be the findings of an “expert panel” whose members included Leicester City assistant manager Michael Appleton. They were asked to review the players’ behavior against Crusaders and ‘a few suspicious moments’ in another quoted game against Dinamo Zagreb. For further This situation reportedly started after Agim Zeqo was appointed as Skenderbeu president in January 2010. At that time, the club was in danger of being relegated. This season, the maintenance was done in an incredible way. On Matchday 28 (5 matches to go), the team needed a win against Vlazznia for their quest. Problem, the team is led 3/2…in the 88th minute 토토사이트. What to do to save the club? The Vlazznia coach voluntarily brought in a player, a young hopeful, who was not on the game sheet!!! MIRACLE, Skenderbeu is maintained in part thanks to this victory on Green Carpet by then winning the playoff match to stay in the 1st division. The rest we know, they won the championship five years in a row; the report shows that the first of their matches was “fixed” in November 2010. Skenderbeu’s current chairman, Ardjan Takaj, who took over from Zeqo in 2012, and former Albanian finance minister Ridvan Bode are believed to have had influence over the match-fixing. The latter is declared by the report as a key donor. He is said to hold “the power, the connections and the knowledge to influence Skenderbeu matches, and… he has done so over the years”. Takaj is accused of targeting friendlies for illegal gain and using connections with Skenderbeu players to influence their actions on the pitch.
“This club has rigged football matches like no one has ever done before in the history of the sport”, the UEFA committee did not go there with tweezers in its report… And maybe that it was indeed not necessary since in 6 years Skenderbeu is accused of having fixed no less than 53 matches in the Albanian league, Europa League and Champions League qualification and friendlies! They were therefore suspended for 10 years from all European competition! 53 match fixing highlighted The suspension came after UEFA’s Betting Fraud Detection System (BFDS) identified 53 matches involving Skenderbeu: friendlies, domestic fixtures and European club competitions 토토사이트 . The matches were fixed between November 2010 and April 2016 in an attempt to win massive amounts of money from sports betting. The case focused on the four most important (and having the most cash at the bookmakers) games: two games from the 2015-16 Champions League qualifying round and two from the League group stage Europe 2015-2016. Skenderbeu is accused of “attempts to manipulate high profile matches for profit”, earning millions of dollars in the process. The report explains that the club have ‘no respect for the integrity of the game’ and have devised a highly organized structure intended to raise huge sums through the game. It’s an accusation the club have always denied. (but the evidence is overwhelming). Europa League : The report says two Europa League group games, in Lisbon (against Sporting) and at home against Lokomotiv Moscow, are of particular concern. Skenderbeu lost 5-1 and 3-0 in those two games, but the rather amazing thing that shocked the authorities was that the course of the two games was exactly as suggested by the bets 토토사이트. Some will remember that I even announced live that the odds were suspicious and the goal would come. Each time it happened. Normally we had almost a 99% chance of winning… And we weren’t the only ones! The former saw a wave of “exuberant and illogical” betting for six or more goals in the game. The match ended 5-1. The second, from the 85th minute when the score was 0-1 received huge live bets for another two goals scored. There were 2 goals in the 89th and 90th minutes. What a nice coincidence… Here is the little wonder on video; with Skenderbeu totally passive and ridiculous in defense. We clearly note the defenders who do not run and the goalkeeper who lets slip the goals.
Hey no! Here too it is false! The bookmaker does not fill his pockets if the TFC beats Barcelona or if Les Herbiers take PSG out of the Cup. On one condition of course…. that the bookmaker does his job well! That is to say what I told you above, that he manages to have (by playing on the evolution of the odds) an equal distribution of bets on each outcome. In fact, the victory of the underdogs even allows free publicity. Whenever a big underdog wins, or a combination of underdogs pass, you will usually find information on all social networks and sites about someone who is making a lot of money. My bookmaker has information that I cannot have…. False ! When you do your job well as a bettor, that is to say that you take the time to analyze everything (stats, players, coach, motivations, etc.) on the national and local press, on the teams’ networks and lots of other supports) we have a duel on equal terms. Sometimes 토토사이트 (and we have often proven it to you on MediaPronos) the bettor can even have the information first, especially on niche markets. So no, the bookmaker does not have a contact in the club who warns him, no more than the bettor, he just has employees who are dedicated to finding information 24 hours a day. While bettors are working, driving or sleeping. On MediaPronos we try to give you equal weapons against the bookmaker by giving you the information as soon as possible, just count all the values published over the last year,🙂 It’s impossible to make money playing favorites…. False ! Once again this is false because the odds (and therefore the handicaps) are adjusted by the stakes of the punters. Bettors are not always right. It takes work, but there is money to be made on the favorites as well as the underdogs. The important thing is to take the right odds at the right time. A favorite team @1.30 may not be worth betting. On the other hand if it goes up @1.75 it can become value (it always depends on the information). This is often the reason why in huge falls in the rating I advise you not to take below a certain threshold. It is also for this reason that during a major drop in the rating, value can “change teams”. Bonus to go further 토토사이트: exchanges allow you to remove the intermediary (bookmaker) Abroad there are betting exchanges (like betfair) which offer a truer picture of the value of a bet. On a betting exchange site, users bet against other users – eliminating the need for a bookmaker. The market is driven by supply and demand, which often results in better odds than those at a bookmaker. Instead of a bookmaker margin, betting exchanges charge a commission on winning bets (between 2% and 5% depending on the exchange on net profits). The average bookmaker margin is 6%, which is a significant difference in potential value for punters, compared to exchange betting.
I know I’m going to shock more than one and bust some myths, but it’s important to be aware of these few truths that bettors often ignore. This allows you to go further and become a better bettor 토토사이트. This also makes it possible to correct buddies or friends who make a mistake by shouting one of these statements loud and clear after a losing bet.😉 Here are 4 statements that you have read a lot, of which you are sometimes even convinced and which are actually false! The bookmaker fills his pockets when a bettor loses… Wrong! That’s just not how sports betting works. The bookmaker is not and does not want to bet against you. It is an intermediary who tries to obtain an equal amount of bets on each side of the bets offered. Bookmakers make money by accepting bets on a market and pricing them in a way that does not represent the true probability of the outcome. This is called the margin, this margin allows them to earn money from bets placed by bettors regardless of the outcome. Abroad the margin is about 5%, in France about 15% (sometimes even more… much more, without looking too much I just found on a French bookmaker, on a match this weekend, 31% margin!! !!!!!!!!). You understand that no matter which of the two outcomes wins, if the bookmaker manages to distribute the bets correctly, he stuffs himself! This is why you have to bet 110 to win 100, or 11 to win 10 on a single bet. Losers lose 110, winners win 100 and the bookmaker takes the extra 10 on all losses. If the bookmaker offered a coin toss, the coin toss odds would not be @2 and @2 but @1.97 and @1.97 abroad and @1.85 and @1.85 in France. Their objective is therefore to obtain exactly the same number of bets on one side as on the other (over and under / 1X2 etc…) 토토사이트. When they don’t have an equal amount of bets on one side, they adjust the odds to try and get bettors on the other side to bet. This is how bookmakers work. This confirms that the huge drops in odds that we sometimes advise you are only anticipation of the true value of the odds in our opinion. Basically it confirms that we give you the information first.
We often talk about the importance of the “home factor” in sport in general. Naturally, players tend to transcend themselves in front of their supporters. So in normal times, we win more often at “home” than outside.. what is really the home factor during the Covid? A study (covering the period 2012-2020), conducted by Carlos Cuevas, confirmed our thinking: locals are disadvantaged when they play in an empty stadium , without this famous 12th man, who knows how to put pressure on the opponents and arbitration decisions. What is this study based on? The sample: this study was conducted on 41 professional leagues (233,666 matches played in total by 1,708 teams) in 30 different countries . Among the 233,666 matches in the sample, 2,749 matches (played in 28 countries) were played without supporters and 613 were played with a large part of the stadium empty (partial). The statistic to remember about the study and the post covid home factor Since #COVID19 , the advantage of playing at home has collapsed by 50%! This is also felt at the level of the refereeing, which is less favorable for the home team (no pressure from the supporters on the refereeing body) 토토사이트. We have noticed that since the start of the matches behind closed doors, the referees have whistled more fouls from the locals than from the visitors. Before COVID-19, it was quite the opposite. Same remark for yellow cards and red cards. Here are the graphics: Match results faults Red cards Yellow cards Summary of the elements to remember concerning the Covid and the home factor Before COVID: 45% wins for locals, 26% draws and 29% wins for visitors. After COVID (empty or partially empty stadium measures): 41% wins for locals, 26% draws and 33% wins for visitors. The home team is called 10% more fouls, receives 22% more yellow cards and 33% more red cards per game compared to the POST-COVID period. Here is a summary of this study by Carlos Cuevas. If you wish to read the complete study (15 pages), I invite you to click here 토토사이트. Good reading !
Hello everyone, I have seen a lot of comments and messages about the evolution of the odds. I’ll explain a bit how it works. Let’s start with the basics, each country has national bookmakers (in France: Winamax, Betclic, FDJ etc…) and then there are international bookmakers (bet365, Pinnacle and hundreds of others). When the bookmaker adds a match and therefore odds to his offer (example Skala Itrottarfelag – NSI Runavik before yesterday) he defines starting odds. The day before yesterday, for example, the match started to be added to the bookmakers shortly after 3 p.m. Thus at 3:06 p.m. 1xbet (foreign bookmaker) offered odds of @1.69 for Runavik’s victory. Winamax @1.42. Pinnacle @1.45. In short, huge odds for any bettor who follows this championship and knows the teams. Then the odds change according to the stakes. So I’m not telling you anything, I’m not the only one to master this championship, foreign bettors were obviously waiting for this bet on Pinnacle. Because in the end a few tens of minutes later the odds fell everywhere and stabilized at 1.10 everywhere. 토토사이트 Rating that I consider correct. Disabilities did the same. I spotted huge handicaps on PMU / Parions sport. Just like Pinnacle (site reputed abroad for accepting large bets) offered the -1.5 handicap (so victory by two or more goals) at odds @2.28! In short, all the sites had enormous odds in relation to the risk and it was monstrous values. Of course the ratings drop very very quickly. And there’s no story of a mole or an undercover bookie or whatever. There are other pros just waiting to shield Runavik @1.70 on Pinnacle or other sites. Because it is their job and their livelihood 토토사이트.
DON’T BE AFRAID OF ODDS Hello everyone, little article that I have wanted to do for a while. It’s about the odds. Too often, too many people come to see me telling me that they are afraid of the odds which are too high for their taste, asking me where the scam is. This article therefore partially follows on from the previous ones. It therefore confirms that bookmakers can let values slip away and it is up to the bettor to be reactive to spot them and take advantage of them as soon as possible. So don’t be afraid of a high rating just because it is high 토토사이트 . It must always be related to the analysis carried out upstream, to the estimated risk and then to judge it. Not before ! There are plenty of great values that we have found with the entire MediaPronos team for several years (available here) which confirm this. And there are also some special case screenshots that I would like to tell you about. Of course once again we are mainly in niche markets, it is more complex to find them in the major championships, but not impossible, we have already proven it to you in the past! In this article, I will mainly dwell on “live” cases because the values are even more important in live. Indeed whatever happens on the field in terms of superiority, domination and play (so I’m not talking about goals or penalties) the bookmaker will need about 10/15 minutes to drastically update the odds . Example, a team that dominates the first 10 minutes enormously and is rated @7 pre-match, will drop to @5 after 10 minutes and to @3.50 after 15 minutes if they continue to dominate. And then if it continues it will even become a favorite. The bookmaker cannot go faster than this time frame. He needs it to realize it, to be certain and even not to drastically change the odds in a few seconds otherwise it is at this moment that he exposes himself and would take risks. Here are some examples : Friendly match between two German amateur teams: Burgaltendorf 1913 – Altenbochum Handicap -2AH set for Burgaltendorf 1913 which should be totally higher Very often sports betting sites indicate live statistics, it can help bettors enormously and it is a very important starting point for live analysis in addition to video (if available) and pre-match analysis . There in this case there were no live stats on my bookmaker. When most would have withdrawn, I saw an opportunity! If the book doesn’t have live stats and I can find them elsewhere a value could be monstrous. So I quickly start looking for any statistics that would confirm whether this -2 handicap is correc 토토사이트t. Very quickly I find live stats on totalcorner and Altenbochum (the team rated @14) seems to slightly dominate the game after 30 minutes of play with 36 dangerous attacks to 20. Be careful, that does not mean that they will win, or even that they are better, but that’s enough to give me the green light that the half-time win odds @7.50 and the end-game win odds @12 at that time are valued. And we can even say enormously value. Of course they don’t have a 90% chance of winning the match…. but do they only have 6.66% (odds 14) to win as the bookmaker estimates? Certainly not! It is therefore a value! It is this reasoning that must be done systematically when locating a value.